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Auction models for wind and PV tenders
Access to EEG funding requires participation in tenders under the German EEG for all larger wind and PV projects. This means project developers, investors and financiers must develop a robust market and competition assessment to answer the following key questions for their project or portfolio:
How much capacity will participate in the auction rounds, where and when? And what achievable remuneration does this result in for the project/portfolio?
This requires an analysis of the supply situation in the tenders with a high regional and temporal resolution. The time horizons of the auction analyses developed by enervis for this purpose range from the short-term forecast for the evaluation of the next auction round(s) to the medium-term perspective (capacities in the approval process) to the long-term potential analysis, which extends several years into the future and is used, for example, for repowering projects and in the evaluation of projects in an early development phase (green field).
What price (bid and remuneration level) will result in future auction rounds, considering the supply and demand situation?
For wind energy, this requires a calculation of bid and payment levels based on project specifics, taking into account the site quality according to the reference yield model, which our auction model depicts in corresponding detail. For the PV tenders, our auction model maps not only location factors but also the equally important economies of scale.
What is the competitive situation for your own project or portfolio and what are promising bidding strategies?
In addition to a cost-based bid price calculation, the question of strategic bid mark-ups needs to be analysed, considering the competitive situation and potential ceiling prices in the tenders. For this purpose, the enervis auction model evaluates bids in a stochastic way, and as a result gives specific success probabilities for the projects examined.
Our auction models for renewable energies are based on extensive databases on supply capacity and the cost structures of the markets, which we keep continuously up to date. Our auction models are designed to model the following auctions: offshore wind, onshore wind, ground-mounted PV, innovation tenders, as well as other tender segments such as biomass. The enervis auction models offer market participants quantitative and strategic support in preparing their bids for all renewable tenders – not only in Germany, but also in the Polish and French markets, for example.
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