Inhouse-Workshop: Revenue and Risk Assessment of Merchant PV Projects for Banks and Financiers

Large ground-mounted PV plants in Germany are on the threshold of economic viability without EEG compensation. This is made possible on the one hand by sharply reduced investment costs and an increased expected plant service life, and on the other hand by rising power market revenues. Furthermore, photovoltaics as a technology is significantly less complex than wind and offers more stable revenues. The falling cost trend can be seen in the PV auction results of recent years.

However, only projects up to a maximum size of 10 MW are generally eligible for support within the framework of EEG PV auctions. If the park capacity increases significantly above this, lower electricity production costs (LCOE) can be realised through economies of scale, especially in purchasing, but these large-scale projects are excluded from EEG compensation. The project pipeline for merchant projects (i.e. without EEG support) is nevertheless growing steadily and the question of financing is of great importance.


Important basic conditions:

  • Introduction: current market situation, motivation for EEG vs. merchant project
  • Review of previous PV tenders
  • Cost situation: Cost structure and development of open space PV systems, drivers of LCOE
  • PV revenues in the power market: price formation for electricity, important price drivers, scenarios, PV market values
  • Cannibalization effects due to continuously falling production costs and
    high PV addition: energy-economic evaluation and significance for the
    Project financing (with project examples)

Project evaluation of Merchant PV:

  • Understanding PPAs: types of PPAs, market players, typical pricing, methods of analysis
  • Evaluate risks: profile costs / PV shape risk, weather years, balance adjustment, availability, negative power prices
  • Establish risk management: Hedging, option trading, use of important valuation tools such as revenue reports, market value atlases, PPA valuation tools
  • Conclusion

You can find further information here:

Product info

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