Auction Study Innovation Tender

The innovation tender offers attractive compensation opportunities, especially for the combination of photovoltaic plants and wind onshore plants with a battery storage. It is offered for a fixed market premium over 20 years, which is not paid out in times of negative day-ahead electricity prices. The premiums are awarded according to the pay-as-bid procedure.

This means that bidders have an advantage if they anticipate the bidding structure precisely so that their bid is as close as possible to the highest acceptance value.

Based on extensive knowledge of the PV and wind project pipeline, the enervis PV Auction Model is used to calculate stochastic forecasts for the auction results.


The methodical procedure of the innovation auction modelling is divided into four steps:

Step 1: Project Overview

  • Market Intelligence on the project pipeline
  • Assessment of participation probabilities
  • Output: Best available information on bidding potential

Step 2: Bid Value Estimation

  • Calculation of minimum bid values with reference costs, electricity price forecasts and opportunity costs
  • Estimation of strategic bidding premiums
  • Output: Merit order of the project pipeline according to minimum bid values and expected value for strategic

Bidding increments Step 3: Auction Simulation

  • Merging of quantities and bid prices
  • Monte Carlo simulation with variation of the participating projects and strategic bidding premiums around the expected value
  • Output: Hundreds of simulated bidding curves

Step 4: Chances of Winning the Award

  • Statistical evaluation of the mean bidding curve
  • Evaluation of the probability of a knockdown depending on the bid value
  • Outcome: Optimal bidding strategy for individual investments and combinations of investments

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Thomas Rosenzopf
Fon +49 (0)30 695175-0

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