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Auction Study for the EEG Innovation Tender
The German EEG innovation tender offers attractive opportunities, especially for combinations of PV and wind onshore projects with battery storage. Here, too, bidders have an advantage if they precisely anticipate the bid structure to be as close as possible to the marginal price with their bid.
Based on extensive knowledge of the PV and wind project pipeline, the enervis auction model calculates stochastic forecasts for the auction results of the innovation tender.
BENEFITS
Our experience on auction modelling shows: Auction studies play an important role in enabling market actors to assess the intensity of competition and optimise their own bid while considering the award probability.
METHODOLOGY
Step 1: Project overview
- Market intelligence on the project pipeline
- Assessment on participation probabilities
- Output: Best available information on bid potential
Step 2: Bid value estimation
- Calculation of minimum bid values with reference costs, electricity price forecasts and opportunity costs
- Estimation of strategic bid premiums
- Output: Merit order of the project pipeline according to minimum bid values and expected value for strategic bid mark-ups
Step 3: Auction simulation
- Merging of quantities and bid prices
- Monte Carlo simulation with variation of participating projects and strategic bid mark-ups around the expected value.
- Output: Large bundle of simulated bid curves.
Step 4: Award chances
- Statistical evaluation of the average bid curve
- Evaluation of the probability of an award as a function of the bid value
- Output: Optimal bidding strategy for individual plants and plant combinations
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