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Auction Studies Photovoltaik
The EEG subsidy rates for PV systems above 750 kWp are determined in auction procedures. The awards are made according to the pay-as-bid procedure. This means that bidders have an advantage if they anticipate the bidding structure precisely in order to be as close as possible to the highest acceptance value.
Based on extensive knowledge of the PV project pipeline, the enervis PV auction model is used to calculate stochastic forecasts for the auction results.
Example:Â Stochastic bidding curve of the auction simulation
USE
Our long and broad experience in auction modelling shows Auction studies play an important role in enabling market players to assess the intensity of competition and to optimise their own bids in consideration of the probability of winning.
METHODOLOGY
The methodical procedure of PV auction modelling is divided into four steps:
Step 1: Project Overview
- Update enervis PV project database
- Assessment of participation probabilities
- Output: Information on bidding potential
Step 2: Bid Value Estimation
- Calculation of minimum bid values with reference costs + electricity price forecasts
- Calibration of the strategic bidding increments
- Output: Range of possible bidding values per project
Step 3: Auction Simulation
- Merging of projects and bid prices
- Monte Carlo simulation of the input parameters
- Output: Stochastic bidding curve of auctions
Step 4: Chances of Winning the Award
- Evaluation of the probability of a knockdown depending on the bid value
- Basis for assessing the risk/reward ratio
- Outcome: Optimal bidding strategy for your project
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