The forecast market value atlas provides a forecast of the future development of technology and location-specific market value differences in the EEG market premium model, taking into account the influences of fluctuating generation quantities from wind and PV. It is therefore an important tool for the long-term evaluation of wind farms in direct marketing of the EEG.
The forecast market value atlas is based on spatially and temporally high-resolution wind time series from the anemos wind atlas in connection with an hourly power price forecast of the market-proven power market model from enervis.
Methodology for Calculating Results
To map the hourly wind feed-in in the power price forecast, we use the same database that is used to calculate the market value differences in the market value atlas. This ensures the necessary methodological congruence of the data sets. With a current power market scenario from the in-house European power market model and a variation over 20 historical weather years that reflect the influence of different wind yields, corresponding results can be derived from a typical range of fluctuations in future market value differences, which in addition to the trend calculation based on market changes. This additional information enables a better classification and evaluation of the results.
The forecast market value atlas shows the future annual market value differences between the project-specific market value and the nationwide market value of the onshore wind energy portfolio. The calculation is based on an hourly power price forecast.
Taget Group & Benefits
The forecast market value atlas is useful for all market players who need a comparative medium to long-term view of the development of market value differences of wind turbines in the market premium model.
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Eckhard Kuhnhenne-Krausmann
Fon +49 (0)30 695175-0
E-Mail: eckhard.kuhnhenne@enervis.de
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