Polish Power Market Outlook 2018-2050

For a long time the Polish power market was a synonyme for coal. Until today the coal-centered energy policy prevented other energy sources like renewables (RES) or natural gas to gain more than a marginal market share.

But with tightening emission standards from the EU’s Industrial Emissions Directive and the reform of the EU Emission Trading System the absolute dominance of coal-fired power generation in Poland could soon come to an end – despite (or due to) the introduction of a new market-wide capacity mechanism at the end of 2018.

In parallel the long-planned RES tenders for onshore wind, photovoltaics and biomass finally gain pace, and a substantial offshore wind pipeline is developed off the Polish coast in the Baltic Sea. These drivers prepare the ground for major changes in the Polish power sector that will readjust the framework for conventional and renewable generation assets in Poland and open up opportunities for new investments. Especially the Polish RES sector could profit from a future change in the power pricing regime, leading to increasingly market-driven RES investments in future.

Highlights

1. Legal and regulatory framework for the Polish power market – status quo and outlook:

  • Implementation and impacts of the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED/BREF)
  • Capacity mechanism incentive system
  • Renewable energy incentive system

2. Power market modelling & outlook until 2050:

  • Key findings from a central power market scenario
  • Implications for investment opportunities in
    • Renewables
    • Gas-fired capacities