Italian Power Market Outlook 2019-2050

Italy has favourable conditions especially for a rapid growth
of PV capacity that will be realized both via tenders and
PPA-based merchant investments. This development
started with utility-scale PV projects, but also Italian wind
energy is currently at the verge of market parity. Where
will this development lead in the future and what needs
to be considered when planning and investing into Italian
RES projects with PPAs? European power market analyst
enervis and the international law firm Bird & Bird with its
offices in Italy have joined forces to answer these questions!

Long-term focus until 2050
With the study »Italian Power Market Outlook 2019 – 2050«
enervis and Bird & Bird provide investors, project developers,
banks and utilities with a comprehensive and quantitative
basis for evaluation of activities in the Italian power
market, especially for PPA-based renewables. The study
covers a long-term time frame up to the year 2050. It contains
comprehensive information on the current legal and regulatory
framework of the Italian power market, merely focusing
on renewable PPAs. In addition the study provides a longterm
scenario forecast of future power prices and capture
prices for PV and wind in Italy up to the year 2050 from the
enervis power market model. The study therefore combines
the expert knowledge of Bird & Bird lawyers from Milan and
Rome regarding the current Italian regulatory framework and
Bird & Bird’s abundant PPA market experience with the longestablished
power market modelling expertise of enervis.

CONTENT OF THE STUDY

1. Legal and regulatory framework for the Italian power market – status quo and outlook:

  • Regulatory framework for the Italian energy market: overview on national energy strategy, targets and relevant legislation
  • Regulatory and market framework for PPA-based merchant RES: legal preconditions, typical PPA structures, market players
  • Regulatory and market framework for renewable energy expansion under tenders
  • Future pathways for coal capacities in Italy (policy scenarios)

2. Power market modelling & outlook until 2050:

  • One scenario from enervis’ European power market model 2019 – 2050 for the Italian wholesale power market (PUN)
  • Numerical forecast results (annual values*):
    –– Spot prices (base, peak, off-peak)
    –– Capture prices PV, wind onshore
  • Annual development of PV and wind on-shore capacities from tenders and merchant capacities based on PPAs
  • Annual development of conventional capacities and generation by fuel/technology
  • Annual net-exports by country
  • Documentation of relevant model assumptions (i. e. fuel and CO2 prices, RES expansion, LCOE, power demand, NTCs).

* Further results like hourly prices, price zone results upon request.