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Study on negative electricity prices and revenue losses due to § 51 EEG
The loss of the EEG market premium in the case of negative hourly electricity price blocks according to § 51 EEG (formerly § 24 EEG) represents a tangible revenue risk for wind and PV projects in the German market and requires an energy-economic assessment. The occurrence of negative prices also affects the future revenue situation of renewable projects in post-subsidy operation and under PPAs.
With the scenario-based analysis of the development of negative electricity prices and the revenue shortfall according to § 51, enervis provides renewable project developers, investors, banks and utilities with a well-founded assessment basis that is recognised in the market since 2015.
Based on enervis’ electricity market scenarios, our § 51 study provides a detailed quantification of expected future negative prices and the resulting § 51 revenue losses for onshore wind, offshore wind and PV projects on an annual basis. The losses are also differentiated according to the different § 51 EEG variants (duration of the hourly blocks until the loss of support) and can thus be used for the evaluation of all EEG asset generations.
Documentation and explanations of the results are provided in report form as well as core results in annual resolution as an Excel file. In addition, we offer a comprehensive explanation of the model assumptions and results, as well as a discussion of conclusions for project evaluation and marketing.
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