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Modelling of the Biomass Tendering Process
The leverage of the bidding strategy was great, as one example shows: In the case of a 10 MW plant, a bid that is 1 ct/kWh higher makes a financial difference of around € 7 million (for a 10 MW project with 7,000 DDPS/a). Operators of existing plants and investors in new plants are currently faced with the task of defining a bidding strategy for the coming auction round.
The uncertainties are high, but so is the scope for economic optimisation. Our reference study supports you in this task by providing a concrete and quantitative forecast of the possible auction results. Our externally validated model simulation supports you not only in the internal evaluation but also in the communication with committees and stakeholders. Make sure that you consider the best possible information.
Benefits
- Concrete support for the definition of your bidding strategy
- Determination of an optimized bidding strategy for your project
CONTENTS
Part A: Model-based outlook on the current auction round
- Project pipeline: Information on the project pipeline of biomass plants gives you an overview of the competitive situation:
- Which pipeline is emerging for new plants?
- Which pipeline of existing plants comes into question?
- Auction simulation: Modelling the auction with the proven enervis auction model
- Scenarios: Modelling of three scenarios (“Intense competition”, “Market view scenario” and “Weak competition”)
- Results: Limit surcharges for the three scenarios
- Risk assessment: Analysis of the fluctuation margins of the marginal surcharges using a Monte Carlo simulation
- Documentation: slides in pdf
Part B:Derivation of individual bidding strategies
- Derivation of a bidding strategy that optimizes your bid in the current auction round based on your individual risk appetite
- based on a reconciliation of plant performance and project costs
- Analysis of opportunities / risks of different bidding strategies
You can find detailed information here:
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