Italian Power Market Outlook 2019-2050

Italy has favourable conditions especially for a rapid growth
of PV capacity that will be realized both via tenders and
PPA-based merchant investments. This development
started with utility-scale PV projects, but also Italian wind
energy is currently at the verge of market parity. Where
will this development lead in the future and what needs
to be considered when planning and investing into Italian
RES projects with PPAs? European power market analyst
enervis and the international law firm Bird & Bird with its
offices in Italy have joined forces to answer these questions!

Our clients benefit from:

  • bankable projections of power prices & spreads
  • capture prices of renewables (PV, Wind)
  • generation mix on a country level
  • pipeline of PPA projects
  • trusted market intelligence

SCENARIOS AND RESULTS

Deliverables in detail (annual resolution):

CONTENT OF THE STUDY

  1. Legal and regulatory framework for the Italian power market – status quo and outlook:
    • Regulatory framework for the Italian energy market:
    overview on national energy strategy, targets and
    relevant legislation
    • Regulatory and market framework for PPA-based
    merchant RES: legal preconditions, typical PPA
    structures, market players
    • Regulatory and market framework for renewable
    energy expansion under tenders
    • Future pathways for coal capacities in Italy
    (policy scenarios)

  2.  Power market modelling & outlook until 2050:
    • One scenario from enervis’ European power market
    model 2019 – 2050 for the Italian wholesale power
    market (PUN)
    • Numerical forecast results (annual values*):
    –– Spot prices (base, peak, off-peak)
    –– Capture prices PV, wind onshore
    • Annual development of PV and wind on-shore
    capacities from tenders and merchant capacities
    based on PPAs
    • Annual development of conventional capacities
    and generation by fuel/technology
    • Annual net-exports by country
    • Documentation of relevant model assumptions
    (i. e. fuel and CO2 prices, RES expansion, LCOE,
    power demand, NTCs).

    * Further results like hourly prices, price zone results upon request.

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