Italian Power Market Outlook 2020 – 2050 (Long term study)

Italy has favourable conditions especially for a rapid growth of PV capacity that will be realized both via tenders and PPA-based merchant investments. This development started with utility-scale PV projects, but also Italian wind energy is currently at the verge of market parity. Where will this development lead in the future and what needs to be considered when planning and investing into Italian RES projects with PPAs? European power market analyst enervis and the international law firm Bird & Bird with its offices in Italy have joined forces to answer these questions!

With the study »Italian Power Market Outlook 2020 – 2050« enervis and Bird & Bird provide investors, project developers, banks and utilities with a comprehensive and quantitative basis for evaluation of activities in the Italian power market, especially for PPA-based renewables.

The study covers a long-term time frame up to the year 2050. It contains comprehensive information on the current legal and regulatory framework of the Italian power market, merely focusing on renewable PPAs. In addition the study provides a longterm scenario forecast of future power prices and capture prices for PV and wind in Italy up to the year 2050 from the enervis power market model. The study therefore combines the expert knowledge of Bird & Bird lawyers from Milan and Rome regarding the current Italian regulatory framework and Bird & Bird’s abundant PPA market experience with the longestablished power market modelling expertise of enervis.


Legal and regulatory framework for the Italian power market – status quo and outlook

  • Regulatory framework for the Italian energy market: overview on national energy strategy, targets and relevant legislation
  • Regulatory and market framework for PPA-based merchant RES: legal preconditions, typical PPA structures, market players
  • Regulatory and market framework for renewable energy expansion under tenders
  • Future pathways for coal capacities in Italy (policy scenarios)

2. Power market modelling & outlook until 2050

  • One scenario from enervis’ European power market model 2020 – 2050 for the Italian wholesale power market (PUN)
  • Numerical forecast results (annual values*): – Spot prices (base, peak, off-peak) – Capture prices PV, wind onshore
  • Annual development of PV and wind on-shore capacities from tenders and merchant capacities based on PPAs
  • Annual development of conventional capacities and generation by fuel/technology
  • Annual net-exports by country
  • Documentation of relevant model assumptions (i. e. fuel and CO2 prices, RES expansion, LCOE, power demand, NTCs).

Get more information here:


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Tim Steinert
Tel. +49 (0)30 695175-0

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